Revenue certainty for final investment decisions

The official consultation question

Q05 · §2.5(c) · paper page 15

What minimum level of policy certainty (e.g. duration, support mechanism) is needed to reach final investment decisions for projects?

Shelby’s response

For initial deployment, Shelby recommends purchasing or equivalent revenue-support arrangements of approximately 15 years against Australian project economics, asset life and lender requirements. Some projects may require shorter or longer terms depending on capital structure, technology and contracted revenues. The essential requirement is not a particular number of years, but sufficient certainty to support financing and FID.

Developers and financiers will also need to know:

the purchaser or payment counterparty;

the supported price or calculation formula;

inflation and market-price adjustment rules;

eligible production, payment limits and certificate treatment;

commissioning deadlines and consequences of delays;

how agreed terms are protected and disputes resolved.

Feedstock, delivery and customer arrangements must also be sufficiently developed to support financing. Co-product income should be recognised where backed by credible contracts and regulatory acceptance.

Policy reviews should improve arrangements for future projects while preserving the commitments underpinning existing investments. The objective is to give developers a dependable basis to assess viability with support included, secure finance and begin producing.

Frequently asked questions

What is Shelby’s position on revenue certainty for final investment decisions?

Revenue arrangements should provide enough certainty to support financing and final investment decisions. Shelby recommends testing approximately 15 years, with clear counterparties, pricing, indexation, eligibility, commissioning terms and protection for existing investment commitments.

What should a project team read alongside this answer?

Read the linked commercial guides and original question. Separate the response’s recommendations and illustrative assumptions from source-reported operating evidence.

Sources & References

• Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, National Renewable Gas Policy consultation

  Publication: Date not verified

  Observation period: Not recorded

  Relevant page / section: Claim-level locator not yet verified

  Last link / title verification: 2026-10-11

  Publisher link checked; individual claims, costs and regulatory applicability still require review.

  Check scope and current applicability before relying on this reference.

• Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, National Renewable Gas Policy consultation paper

  Publication: 2026-08

  Observation period: Australia; 2026 consultation

  Relevant page / section: Consultation questions; use answer-specific paper page and question reference

  Last link / title verification: 2026-10-11

  Publisher link checked; individual claims, costs and regulatory applicability still require review.

  Source for questions/context, not proof of an implemented support mechanism. Question text attribution: Commonwealth, CC BY 4.0, as noted in Shelby’s supplied consultation response.

• Creative Commons, Attribution 4.0 International

  Publication: Date not verified

  Observation period: Not recorded

  Relevant page / section: Claim-level locator not yet verified

  Last link / title verification: 2026-10-11

  Publisher link checked; individual claims, costs and regulatory applicability still require review.

  Check scope and current applicability before relying on this reference.