Hydrogen pathways: start with the customer, compare the full system.

Hydrogen: latest public references

Retail refuelling and modelled production costs are separate references. Neither establishes a current bulk industrial buyer price.

Delivered industrial quote: project-specific, not established by these references. Figures exclude GST only where tax is evidenced. Unknown or study-specific tax remains source-native.

Display conversion uses an indicative 30-day average, not a real-time rate. Calculations, project prices and downloads remain AUD.

Why hydrogen is not a single technology

Hydrogen is an energy carrier and industrial input, not a naturally interchangeable substitute for every gas. Production routes have different requirements for electricity, process heat, gas, water, compression, distribution and carbon management. An attractive factory-gate production figure may be less competitive once delivery, storage, utilisation and customer equipment are included. For Shelby Bioenergy, hydrogen is a possible project output, not a predetermined solution.

Three routes to compare

Fossil natural-gas reforming may be relevant as a cost or emissions comparator, but it is not a bioenergy-based renewable hydrogen route merely because capture technology is installed. Electric and biogenic routes must be assessed against equivalent product and delivery boundaries.

Compare the same hydrogen service

First, define whether the customer needs process hydrogen, refining feedstock, metal processing or a fuel-cell grade product. Then establish kilograms per day, peak demand, minimum pressure, purity and permitted trace contaminants, delivery location, storage, redundancy and contract duration. Automotive proton-exchange-membrane fuel cells can require stringent impurity limits beyond a headline 99.99% purity figure; a producer must meet the applicable detailed specification, testing and validation.

Shelby's assessment should document the delivered cost per kilogram and the emissions intensity of the entire relevant chain, rather than compare electricity consumption alone. For example, electrolysis generally requires substantial electrical input; biomethane reforming also consumes the chemical energy of methane. Low auxiliary electricity demand for a reformer does not imply low total energy use.

What determines a credible BioH₂ case?

A credible biogenic hydrogen project needs independently supported answers to the following questions:

1. Is the biogenic gas available in sufficient measured quantity and quality, and what useful alternative use would it displace?
2. What conversion, purification, compression and storage equipment is required at the proposed scale?
3. What are realistic availability, process yields, electricity and heat requirements and maintenance arrangements?
4. Where does the biogenic CO₂ go? Is there a lawful, technically feasible recovery, utilisation or storage case - and which emissions are actually counted?
5. Which buyer is able to accept the delivered product at a price and term that support investment?
6. What Australian fuel, safety, product and environmental certification requirements apply to this precise process and claim?

Deliver near the user or distribute from a hub?

Hydrogen can be made near feedstock supply, at an existing biogas facility, at a shared processing hub or near the industrial customer from delivered biomethane. Each layout creates different costs for gas transport, hydrogen storage and trucking, electricity connections, safety setbacks and specialist servicing. A distributed network is commercially preferable only when its delivered cost and reliability outperform the alternatives.

What Shelby evaluates

Assess → Compare → Optimise → Advance. Shelby's Australian-developed decision-support approach starts with resource and customer data, checks technical fit, compares scenarios and identifies missing evidence. Qualified projects may then proceed to specialist engineering, permitting, supplier due diligence, financing and development activities through suitable partners. Screening is not engineering certification, bankable feasibility or a guarantee of grant eligibility.

References and provenance

Shelby's October 2026 National Renewable Gas Policy submission, Q02/Q19–Q20; Shelby consultation hub; BioH₂ existing page; Clean Energy Regulator, Product Guarantee of Origin products lists electrolysis as the first eligible hydrogen method and other routes as upcoming (publisher page checked 11 October 2026). Verify the applicable product methodology and detailed fuel standard for the actual process; no automatic BioH₂ certification or fuel-cell conformity is claimed.

What is the current all-in price?

Current consumer price for pure hydrogen, excluding GST (AUD/kg)

No verified figure. No verified current Australian bulk industrial buyer price. Viva Energy's June 2025 Geelong FAQ publishes a roll-up dispenser quote of A$30/kg excluding GST (A$33/kg including GST). This is retail refuelling, not a bulk industrial supply contract, and its October 2026 price was not reconfirmed. Published production costs are a separate evidence class. Not included: The DCCEEW A$5 to A$10/kg range on the hydrogen page is a modelled production cost, not a consumer price.

Viva Energy: FAQs: Viva Energy Hub Hydrogen Refuelling Station, PDF page 1, How much does Hydrogen cost per kg?

Hydrogen prices, cost estimates and outlook

Screening context only. Not current offers, bulk BioCO₂ transaction prices or calculator defaults. Calculations and exports remain AUD; interactive display conversion uses an indicative ECB average.

Evidence still needed

CSIRO pathway comparison: exact chart values pending. The December 2025 technical appendix states 2024 AUD (section 2.1) and lists production and fuel assumptions (Tables 8–9), not the supplied approximate levelised-cost results. Approximate graph values remain withheld until reconciled to exact model outputs. Production cost is not a customer price. Source & verification context

No national annual bulk-buyer observations established for 2016–2025. Supplied 2027–2036 indexed curves are arbitrary sensitivities, not assessed market forecasts.

Projected cost reductions, not an observed price trend

The 2024 National Hydrogen Strategy anticipates renewable-energy costs falling by 40 to 60% and electrolyser costs by 88 to 94% by 2050. These are model assumptions, not realised savings or hydrogen buyer-price forecasts. Its Figure 5 compares production pathways, but exact future values have not been inferred from the artwork. Biomethane reforming needs its own feedstock, conversion, emissions and delivery assumptions; this electrolysis range must not substitute for a BioH₂ quotation.

• Electricity supply and electrolyser utilisation
• Capital cost, financing and plant scale
• Compression, storage and distance to the buyer

DCCEEW: National Hydrogen Strategy 2024. Objective 1: production-cost outlook and Figure 5; published 13 September 2024. Checked 13 October 2026.

Frequently asked questions

Is all renewable hydrogen biohydrogen?

No. BioH₂ identifies a hydrogen pathway involving eligible biological inputs. Hydrogen from qualifying renewable-electricity electrolysis uses a different production and accounting pathway.

Does 99.99% hydrogen purity mean fuel-cell ready?

Not by itself. The relevant fuel specification sets limits on individual impurities, sampling and quality assurance as well as total hydrogen content.

Is reforming biomethane always cheaper than electrolysis?

No. Results depend on the price and availability of biomethane, plant scale and utilisation, conversion and carbon management, electricity, financing, delivery and customer requirements. Published case-study costs should not be treated as universal Australian project prices.

Sources & References

• Shelby Bioenergy, Shelby’s National Renewable Gas Policy consultation response

  Publication: 2026-10

  Observation period: October 2026

  Relevant page / section: Supplied company position

  Last link / title verification: Not verified

  Company position / supplied material, not independent evidence.

  Proposals and scenarios, not adopted policy or market offers.

• Clean Energy Regulator, Guarantee of Origin Scheme launches

  Publication: 2025-11-03

  Observation period: Publisher page retrieved 11 October 2026

  Relevant page / section: Scheme launch; initial hydrogen coverage and proposed expansion

  Last link / title verification: 2026-10-11

  Publisher link checked; individual claims, costs and regulatory applicability still require review.

  Launch does not establish eligibility of every renewable-gas production route.

• Clean Energy Regulator, Product Guarantee of Origin products

  Publication: 2025-11-03

  Observation period: Publisher page retrieved 11 October 2026

  Relevant page / section: Hydrogen: electrolysis; Upcoming products

  Last link / title verification: 2026-10-11

  Publisher link checked; individual claims, costs and regulatory applicability still require review.

  Retrieved page lists electrolysis first and other routes/products as upcoming. No confirmed biomethane commencement date inferred.