Build a transparent bioenergy project model.
Model the existing or proposed plant from resources through saleable output and cash flow. Include the capital scope, utilisation, delivery, policy support and product contracts on a consistent basis. Shelby consultation response, Biomethane production costs and cost drivers (company position) Test haulage, connection works and service coverage for the proposed site rather than applying another facility’s cost assumptions.
Set the baseline and upgrade case
For operating assets, identify energy currently used or sold. Compare additional products with displaced output, integration costs and changes to operating requirements.
Test the financing case
Separate quoted, contracted and illustrative assumptions. Run sensitivities for lower output, delay, electricity costs and missing co-product income. Compare unsupported and specified-support cases without presenting a scenario as an award.
Costs that are often underestimated
Feedstock collection and transport, pre-treatment, gas cleaning, grid connection, labour, maintenance and digestate management frequently exceed early estimates. Downtime affects revenue as much as price. A sensitivity analysis on feedstock volume, availability and product price shows which assumptions most influence returns, and where further evidence would most reduce risk.
Minimum model documentation
State the currency and price year, nominal or real treatment, tax boundary, construction period, ramp-up and replacement assumptions. Link throughput to a documented resource case and useful output to customer terms. Separate awarded support from hypothetical policy tests. Present the baseline, declared case and downside case together so reviewers can see which assumptions create the result and which remain unresolved.
Frequently asked questions
What makes co-product revenue useful for financing?
Reliable quality, lawful market access and credible contracts, with net returns after relevant costs.
What inputs does a bioenergy project model need?
At minimum: capital cost and scope, operating costs, feedstock supply and cost, utilisation, saleable output, prices with their basis and term, co-product contributions, support assumptions and the price year. Each input should show whether it is quoted, contracted or assumed.
Should grants be included in project returns?
Show grants as a separate case. Awarded funding reduces upfront capital, while proposed or hypothetical support should never be presented as part of the base case.
Sources & References
- International Energy Agency (IEA), Outlook for Biogas and Biomethane
Publication: 2025-05-28
Observation period: 2025 report; modelled costs are not Australian supplier quotations
Relevant page / section: Key issues affecting biogas and biomethane projects
Last link / title verification: Not verified (check attempted 2026-10-11)
Verification incomplete, do not rely on this reference for an investment or approval decision.
Check scope and current applicability before relying on this reference.
- US Environmental Protection Agency, Project Planning and Financing
Publication: 2014-12-22
Observation period: Not recorded
Relevant page / section: Claim-level locator not yet verified
Last link / title verification: 2026-10-11
Publisher link checked; individual claims, costs and regulatory applicability still require review.
Check scope and current applicability before relying on this reference.
- Shelby Bioenergy, Shelby’s National Renewable Gas Policy consultation response
Publication: 2026-10
Observation period: October 2026
Relevant page / section: Supplied company position
Last link / title verification: Not verified
Company position / supplied material, not independent evidence.
Proposals and scenarios, not adopted policy or market offers.